The article presents a comparative analysis of population growth dynamics and the age-sex structure of the monotowns Karatau and Zhanatas. The population of these towns was forecasted up to 2030 using a short-term linear extrapolation method. Indicators included overall birth, death, and infant mortality rates, migration balance, as well as the natural growth rate.

          The analysis results showed that over the past ten years, Karatau and Zhanatas have experienced trends such as a high birth rate, negative migration balance, and an increase in the elderly population. During the study period, the population of Karatau steadily increased, reaching 30,501 by 2021, but declined by approximately 2,000 people over the past two years. Conversely, the population of Zhanatas grew by 2,500 people since 2022.

            The linear extrapolation forecast indicated that by 2030, the population of Karatau may reach 28,692, while Zhanatas could reach 28,179. These findings may prove useful for demographic planning in monotowns and small towns of the Republic of Kazakhstan, as well as for developing targeted government programs.