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Bulletin of Abai KazNPU. Series of Sociological and Political sciences

INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION TO THE TRANSFORMATION OF TERRORIST THREATS IN CENTRAL ASIA AFTER 2021

Published September 2026

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Академия КНБ РК

e-mail: muratkemer65@mail.ru

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Murat Tuleyev

Tuleyev Murat – Candidate of Political Sciences, Academy of the National Security Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan.

Abstract

This article examines how far Central Asia's counter-terrorism system has adapted to changes in the threat environment since 2021. The analysis focuses on four risk mechanisms: the cross-border effects of instability in Afghanistan, recruitment through dispersed networks, the circulation of digital propaganda, and the return of citizens from conflict zones. These mechanisms are compared with five institutional functions: detection, interagency coordination, prevention, rehabilitation, and outcome evaluation. The study combines a structured review with a comparative analysis of 61 open academic and institutional sources published between 2005 and 2026, most of them from 2021-2026. Evidence was coded using a common analytical framework, while findings were checked across scholarly research, legislation, and reports by international organizations. The results show that a low number of recorded attacks does not in itself indicate low regional vulnerability. Since 2021, risks linked to external networks, remote communication, mobility, and operational planning outside the country of citizenship have become more visible. Legal and coordination mechanisms have adjusted more rapidly than evaluation of prevention programs, cross-sector reintegration, and rights safeguards. The article contributes an assessment of the correspondence between specific threat mechanisms and institutional response functions. Its matrix distinguishes the adoption of a measure from demonstrated evidence of its effects.

pdf (Русский)
Language

Русский

How to Cite

[1]
Tuleyev, M. 2026. INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION TO THE TRANSFORMATION OF TERRORIST THREATS IN CENTRAL ASIA AFTER 2021. Bulletin of Abai KazNPU. Series of Sociological and Political sciences. 95, 3 (Sep. 2026), 273–288. DOI:https://doi.org/10.51889/2959-6270.2026.95.3.014.